With disinformation not yet in play, the advance's first week is marked by real news
Over the past week, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) began advancing into the Kursk and Belgorod regions of Russia. Ukraine says it now controls 1,000 sq km of Russian land.
Initially, most Western media focused on what Ukraine lacked while risking such a manoeuvre, rather than on what it has gained by claiming parts of Russian territory.
Now one week into Ukraine’s incursion in the Kursk region in the Russian Federation, a lot of strategic thinking has popped up online.
By August 14, a brilliant discussion on The Silicon Curtain examines how Ukraine's latest counter-offensive is accelerating the collapse of Putin's regime. To read the details, please see https://youtube.com/watch?v=2Pz9wGeCzXc&si=7k7j9OKYhgXYzP5v .
The Atlantic Council provides a clear analysis of Ukraine’s latest campaign, outlining the advantages of Ukraine’s advance. These include easing the military pressure in the south of Ukraine, and debunking Putin’s red lines as well as the West’s fears of escalation. Due to the invasion, Ukraine has regained the military initiative. Utilizing their agility, they’ve been able to return to a war of mobility and manoeuvre. Most of all, Ukraine’s advance has struck a blow against enemy morale by bringing Russia’s war to Russia, plus improved Ukrainian morale at home. While no-one outside the Presidential Office of Ukraine and the AFU knows the full plan involving the advance, this move may also be an indication of a future peace process.
According to Forbes, there’s growing evidence the Ukrainian incursion corps—some or all of up to five 2,000-person brigades plus at least one 400-person independent battalion—plans to stay. They are digging trenches, signs that a long-term Ukrainian occupation of part of Kursk is on the table.
In retaliation, Russia set a fire at the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. According to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, “we have recorded from Nikopol that the Russian occupiers have started a fire on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Currently, radiation levels are within the norm. However, as long as the Russian terrorists maintain control over the nuclear plant, the situation is not and cannot be normal. Since the first day of its seizure, Russia has been using the Zaporizhzhia NPP only to blackmail Ukraine, all of Europe, and the world. We are waiting for the world to react, waiting for the IAEA to react. Russia must be held accountable for this. Only Ukrainian control over the Zaporizhzhia NPP can guarantee a return to normalcy and complete safety.”
The results of Ukraine’s incursion of the Kursk region are already apparent on August 11. According to Azov South on Twitter/X, the number of strikes on Ukraine in the Kharkiv region has decreased. Previously, there were 30-60 strikes per day, now there are less than 10 strikes.
In the Kherson region, the Ukrainian flag is waving proudly at the temporarily occupied Kinburn Spit, as reported on August 11 by Anton Gerashchenko on Twitter/X.
Other initial effects of Ukraine’s advance of the Kursk region involve finance. Anne Applebaum reports August 11 on Twitter/X that small, regional Chinese banks will no longer accept payments from Russian companies out of fear of secondary US sanctions. Barter will soon be the only means of trade.
OSINT Aggregator describes the beginning of Ukraine’s cross-border assault in Belgorod, Russia on Twitter/X. Ukrainian troops have launched an attack on Russian defenses near the Kolotilovka checkpoint in the Belgorod region, deploying a tank platoon supported by small assault groups. Border guards and Russian armed forces are currently engaged in battle, with fighting ongoing.
An article in Time Magazine emphasizes the benefits of Ukraine’s advances. Although they may be slight in a geographical sense, their strategic implications are huge. As a result of putting Russia on the defensive, morale and inspiration among Ukrainians have grown, while Russian vulnerability is being felt very publicly.
By August 12, according to Maria Avdeeva on Twitter/X, Russia has admitted to losing 28 settlements in the Kursk region.
A prominent Ukraine blogger, War Translated (Estonia), insists that the Russians are taking the fact of the AFU in the Kursk region very seriously now. He indicates that the Russian war bloggers say that Ukraine is in Kursk to stay.
An interesting perspective on Russia’s response came from Michael MacKay on Twitter/X. “Ukrainians understand the enemy. They know that when you put pressure on Russians they fall apart. Russia has no civil society. American officials don't understand the enemy. They think that if you put pressure on Russians they will "escalate." But that has never been true.”
As of August 11, according to time.com, “Russia's state Tass news agency has reported more than 76,000 people have been evacuated from the border area with new orders by Russian leadership to expedite additional evacuations. Such desperation will only continue to seed doubt among Russian soldiers and the public.”
Many Ukraine experts have warned that Russian disinformation and propaganda is expected to increase now following Ukraine’s advance in the Kursk region – with many alt-right elements amplifying it across the world. According to Marci Shore on Twitter/X, Timothy Snyder reminds us that "much of MAGA has been educated by Russian bots, such that their own online (and even offline) behavior simply imitates demotivational algorithms."
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has taken over from the Russian army in the Kursk region. According to the Donbas Samizdat on Twitter/X, “with the FSB now in command in Kursk, expect terror to be unleashed on the local population. FSB provocateurs dressed in Ukrainian uniforms, false flags, executions, torture, shooting up houses, Nazi symbols, actors since 2014... They would run check points in Ukraine colors & run around areas trying to weed out "pro-Ukrainians". They also filmed themselves shooting up streets & apartment blocks for propaganda. Not to mention perfidious acts to trick the Ukrainian army.”
Numerous Russian conscripts have surrendered to the AFU in Kursk region. It has been said throughout online content in the past week that, in sharp contrast to the conduct of the Russian Army, the Ukrainian Army has treated its prisoners with respect and dignity.
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